.tableizer-table th { Preakness 2022: Who are the fastest contenders. Beyer Speed Figures had him with a top of 79 as a 2-year-old, but he earned a 94 for the San Vicente and a 98 for the San Felipe, so he's . His Beyers have progressed from 70 to 88 to 98. Timeform Ratings go a step further in trying to be both accurate and objective. He later was disqualified for a drug overage and runner-up Mandaloun was promoted to the win. Conversely, a Belmont MSW favorite with a figure of 90 will be formidable.Owners and trainers can employ pars to find proper spots for their horses. Other Andrew Beyer Breeders Cup picks are on the main page. While Beyer has also noted that "speed figures tell you how fast a horse ran in the past; they do not necessarily predict how it will run today," their use as a handicapping tool is premised on their ability to shed light on how a horse is likely to run in its next start. His strong and consistent 3-year-old form, combined with a lack of depth among the prospective contenders, makes this logical. Sometimes, variants are split during the day if the surface changes drastically enough. Questions of general interest will be preferred for publication. Breeders Cup Promo - Get Up to $200 Back If Your First Bet Loses, Get Your First Single-Horse Win Wager Back, Register for DFS, receive a free NBA Entry. His Beyer Speed Figure of 92 is only 4 points off the second best number. The figure may however be adjusted if the raw numbers are unusual based on the field's previous performances. Please confirm the wagering regulations in your jurisdiction as they vary from state to state, province to province and country to country. Sonora, CA (95370) Today. With the 2022 Breeders' Cup fast approaching we take A look at the historical numbers for each of the 14 championship races. 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Play today with NYRA Bets! Following a five-month intensive process, Beyer, with partner Matt Hopkins and colleague Randy Moss, all the speed figures for 2015 turf races have been updated. Andrew Beyer and his associates answer selected readers questions about Beyer Speed Figures. It is interesting that the 94 Beyer Speed Figure that Secret Oath earned in the Kentucky Oaks puts her right in the mix with the other top contenders. Nest improved to an 82 Beyer and a 99 Equibase figure in the Suncoast. He's done a super job and he's made all the right moves. He will now try to win the Derby in only his third start, which seems preposterous, but it seemed preposterous to win the . [14] Alysheba ran a 122 speed figure in his career. Note that Crown Pride and Summer Is Tomorrow do not have relevant Beyer Speed Figures due to running outside the United States. Only Epicenter and Taiba hit triple digits in their most recent race. The 148th running of horse racing's Kentucky Derby will be held Saturday, May 7, 2022, at Churchill Downs in Louisville. Its important to look at multiple data points, especially in the case of an unusually high or low number, such as that of Morello. Ran third in the Preakness, beaten 3 1/2 lengths by Early Voting, tabbed with a 100 Beyer Speed Figure at 10-1 . Beyer Speed Figures earned by Messier (103) and Adare Manor (94) in their blowout victories yesterday at Santa Anita were the highest by male and female 3-year-olds, respectively, thus far in 2022. Beyer Speed Figures express the most important factor in handicapping: how fast a horse has run in each of his starts.The winning figure for a race is based on three factors: the final time, the distance, and the inherent speed of the track (a calculation known as the track variant.) 'TDN Rising Star' Flightline ( Tapit) is really, really, fast . This makes them wild cards of sorts, with the odds estimate reflecting the uncertainty. margin: 3px; He has produced multiple five-figure days at the track over the years, including a $60,000 Pick 6 at Del Mar in 2014. While news that Kentucky Derby sensation Rich Strike will skip the Preakness Stakes surely tamping down some of the fervor over the big race, that doesn't mean there's nothing to watch for or bet on this Saturday. The Beyer speed figure of 79 was solid if not spectacular, but the manner in which the win was accomplished - a stalking trip followed by a good late kick - suggests this colt will be perfectly suited by an extended sprint . Jerardi is also part of the Beyer speed figure team, a system that was designed by legendary Washington Post racing columnist Andy Beyer. Young horses improve with time, typically at a rate of a point per month, so a par for 3-year-old $20,000 claimer could not be accurate in both January and December. Epicenter has just recently won the Risen Star stakes by about three lengths with a Beyer Speed Figure of 98 points. Odds Shark does not target an audience under the age of 18. Taiba won as much the best, again earning a Beyer figure north of 100. specialized hardware accelerators have been developed to facilitate high-speed computations for these data-intensive workloads. Beyer Speed Figures express the most important factor in handicapping: how fast a horse has run in each of his starts. So it's possible for a horse to earn a number that is higher than a horse who finished ahead. We knew Olympiad was fast - he set a new track record of 1:42.01 for 1 1/16 miles at Fair Grounds in winning the Mineshaft Stakes in February - but watching him press a fast pace in the Stephen Foster and still finish with a final eighth of a . Reach for the superlatives: Flightline and jockey Flavien Prat after a truly astonishing performance in the Pacific Classic. Overall, the 2022 Kentucky Derby field looks generally faster than the 2021 field. Typically, Kentucky Derby field horses post BSF around or over 90. background-color: #104E8B; This Saturday will see the 154th running of New York's horse racing classic, and Belmont Stakes odds have opened for betting. [8] It is noteworthy that Easy Goer's overall speed figures were substantially superior to principal rival Sunday Silence, despite Sunday Silence's slight three to one edge in their head-to-head races. It has sold approximately 200,000 copies, has been translated into Japanese and Korean, and is still in print after 44 years. Daily Racing Form provides the top 25 race horses ranked by earnings. According to the speed figures, Arkansas is the circuit to avoid in this year's Kentucky Derby. Bet On Flightline (+375) at BetOnline Baby Yoda finished second in the Malibu, but was never a threat to Flightline, who won eased up by 11 1/2 lengths. The Stephen Foster was the fifth straight triple-digit Beyer Speed Figure for Olympiad in 2022. As of 02.26.23. Crown Pride hails from Japan while Summer Is Tomorrow, despite a Kentucky breeding, has been racing in Dubai. Morello performed the worst last time out, surprisingly after winning his first three races. So a high BSF ceiling is notable, but also consistency is a plus too to battle possible negative regression. Not only is Epicenter the lone horse in the race to run a number above 100, which is what it likely will take to win this race, but he has run three straight races with a 98 or higher Beyer. With A 118 Beyer, Flightline Heads Into 2022. The end result also included a 98 Beyer, which matches the best speed figure run so far by Zandon, the morning-line Derby favorite. For example, horse "A" has gotten Beyer Speed Figures of 90, 82, and 89 in his last three races. Figure 1a shows the stack of the device used for the study with a scanning electron microscope . Several other companies produce and sell power ratings, but most do not reveal their precise methodology. padding: 4px; The only thing Sadler would commit to is that Flightline's next race will not be a sprint. Big South Tournament Odds: UNC Asheville, Longwood Knotted Atop Betting Market. Their six associates involved in making figures include television commentator Randy Moss and long-time Philadelphia sports columnist Dick Jerardi, who have been with the business since its beginning. The winner of the Kentucky Derby will likely run their best career race, but having a history of 100+ BSF helps predict such a performance. Stay up-to-date with the best from America's Best Racing! (Only Epicenter, Messier . 2022 Kentucky Derby Trail: By the Numbers. 3-Year-Old Female Older Male Older Female. Periods of rain. Beyer Speed Figures and TimeformUS Speed Figures are courtesy ofDaily Racing Form. The system behind the figures was explained in detail and popularized by Andrew Beyers book, Picking Winners, published in 1975. Top Beyer Speed Figures. Speed Figures: Nest's speed figures have improved dramatically in her last few starts. For American Quarter Horse racing, the Speed index rating system is used. NEC Tournament Odds: Merrimack In A One-Horse Race? Handicappers may find it useful to relate the par to the typical figures of horses in a field. [22] However, Beyer also acknowledged that by some calculations, Count Fleet's Beyer speed figures might have reached 150. Every race since has been shorter. The methodology has stood the test of time, though the availability of computer-generated data has enabled some refinements over the years.The calculation of figures is not a mechanical process. Speed Figures: Un Ojo improved his best Equibase Speed Figure 14 points to a 91 for the Rebel Stakes, and he boosted his career-best Beyer Speed Figure 13 points to an 84. Using this information to contravene any law or statute is prohibited. Wudda U Think Now had the weekend's highest Beyer Speed Figure and Brisnet Speed Ratings after winning the black-type Hollie Hughes at Aqueduct on Saturday for his first stakes win in 14 career starts. (Of course, all horses have distances they prefer, and a sprinter who earns a big figure at six furlongs is unlikely to duplicate it in the Kentucky Derby.) Another very fast horse who was handled that way was Ghostzapper (Awesome Again). 38 Flatter Died 2022 67 111 17 0 $665,300 3 3 4% 0 0 0% 96 Hero Status. font-weight: bold; Six of the last eight horses to cross the finish line first in the Kentucky Derby have come from California. border: 1px solid #CCC; On this Wikipedia the language links are at the top of the page across from the article title. Messier, Taiba and Epicenter have run the strongest of the horses in the field. They keep stressing do what's right for the horse. A 2011 journalism graduate from Nebraska-Omaha, he combines those skills with his love of sports and statistics to help bettors make more informed decisions with a focus on pro football, baseball and basketball. In the army they called it unity of command. Considering that he is by Tapit and, therefore, should do his best running at longer distances and that Sadler-trained horses usually don't reach their peak until turning four, or even five, could Flightline actually get better? Those who live and die by the speed figures may give Early Voting a chance to upset Epicenter andSkippylongstockinga shot to hit the board, but neither runner has any previous figure that is strong enough to lean on. The par for the same class at Thistledown is 59. p: (800) 647-6571 When considering his chances to excel at 1 miles in the classic, Olympiad gets a nice stamina boost from the bottom half of his pedigree. Why do we care? Overall, the number reflects the time of the race and the inherent speed of the track over which it was run. None of the entrants in 2010's field has yet earned a number higher than 101. Consistency and experience show that Epicenter is a worthy favorite who will be tough to beat. Through 02/26/2023. Pars for Beyer Speed Figures represent the approximate average winning figure for a given class at a given track. color: #FFF; 2022 Preakness Stakes morning-line odds, picks: Racing insider offers betting strategy for second leg of Triple Crown One week after hitting the Pick 4 at Belmont Park for $1,851, Beyer Speed Figure maker Bob Weir just revealed his picks and bets for the Preakness Stakes on Saturday at Pimlico Race Course The figures are generally less reliable in turf races, which often have a slow early pace resulting in slow final times that do not reflect the horse's true speed. This year, five colts already have surpassed a 102: Taiba, Mo Donegal, Early Voting, all with 111s to their credit, as well as Messier (108) and Zandon (103). View information about the top race horses and their winnings at DRF.com today. . Beyer's subsequent research added the last piece of the puzzle. In horse racing, power ratings are generally called class ratings. Formal Gold ran successive numbers of 126, 124 and 125 in 1997 in the Whitney Handicap (actually losing by a nose to Will's Way), Iselin Handicap and Woodward Stakes. border: 1px solid #CCC; Receive daily headlines, breaking news alerts, promotions, and much . Among long shots, Zozos has the best chance to spring an upset, based on speed figures. As any horses drop out and new horses are elevated into the field, we can adjust the chart accordingly. Winds ESE at 5 to 10 mph. In two of that years Kentucky Derby preps, Destin stopped the timer for the 1 1/16 miles of the Tampa Bay Derby in 1:42.82. Only four contenders in this year's prospective Derby field have a Beyer Speed Figure within five points of co-tops Taiba and Messier:Epicenter with a 102 and Zandon, Zozos and Simplification, each of whom have a 98 Beyer to their credit. A look at the top Kentucky Derby contenders for the 2022 race heading into the March prep schedule, with Baffert still banned and new leaders in the points rankings. Brett is an avid sports traveler and former Division-I football recruiter for Bowling Green and Texas State. The team that puts out the Beyer speed figure numbers made it official Monday morning. The ultimate objective is to have every number express the quality of a horses performance. They are meant to represent the racing merit of an Australian horse. Medina Spirit posted a 101 Brisnet Speed Rating in last year's Kentucky Derby. Sure, there are some extremely talented horses in the Longines Classic division including, among others, Hill n Dale Metropolitan Handicap winner Flightline, Pegasus World Cup victor Life Is Good, and Dubai World Cup Sponsored by Emirates Airline winner Country Grammer, but Olympiad has cemented his status as a top contender and a budding star for owners Grandview Equine, Cheyenne Stables, and LNJ Foxwoods. In 1963, Taulbot sent his parallel-time chart to Beyer's Harvard classmate, Sheldon Kovitz, who adjusted it to account for velocity (e.g., a horse who runs six furlongs in 1:09 will run its seventh furlong faster than one who runs 1:13, and so forth). His Carter victory earned a career-high Beyer Speed Figure of 114. . GET OUR NEWSLETTER. According to the Daily Racing Form's Jay Privman, the 118 is the highest number given to any horse since Shancelot (Shanghai Bobby) got a 121 when winning the 2019 GII Amsterdam S. at Saratoga. After a weekend of three extremely telling Kentucky Derby prep races, and 50-point races coming quickly, there's no better time to take a look at how the crop has performed figures-wise to this point. After the New York Times gave the book an unexpected rave review, Picking Winners attracted a wide audience. Indy, earned her lone win at 1 1/16 miles and produced Hungry Island and Soaring Empire, both stakes winners around two turns. Zozos joins Epicenter, Early Voting, Pioneer of Medina and Zandon as the only horses in the field whose speed figures have gone up each time they have run in each of the three categories. Where and when, I don't know yet. Danzing Candy won the San Felipe at the same distance in 1:43.04. BSFs were created by Andy Beyer and are a system for rating the performance of horses in North America. Flightline had already made headlines before his first career start, selling for $1 million at the 2019 Fasig-Tipton Saratoga sale. 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational Bets: Final PGA TOUR Thoughts, Betting Card. Secret Oath's 103 number ranks as good as anyone who did not run in the Wood Memorial. Since making their published debut in 1992, Beyer Speed Figures have become the industry standard for evaluating Thoroughbred performance. We might not have seen the best from Secret Oath and Creative Minister, who have shown they can run competitivefigures while they continue to improve. 107. The Beyer Speed Figure is a system for rating the performance of Thoroughbred racehorses in North America designed in the early 1970s by Andrew Beyer, the syndicated horse racing columnist for The Washington Post. 60 Broad St. Beyer Speed Figures are a great tool. Each day's races are compared to their pars, with the variant representing the average deviation, and then added to the raw speed rating to yield the par-time based figure. May 11:Strobe quick early, late in sparkling debut victory, May 25:Pricey Nabokov pays off with 91 Beyer, June 2:Forte shouldimprove with distance, Beyer Slideshow featuring last weekends stakes winners from around the country with Beyer Speed Figures, sire/breeder information and more. Is Epicenter as much of a standout as he seems? The Malibu was the longest start of his career. Longtime Washington Post columnist Andy Beyer created the Beyer Speed Figures, first appearing in his groundbreaking handicapping book Picking Sportsbooks in 1975. Signup and get a $200 deposit bonus! They employ their judgment in analyzing any racing card and determining the track variant. Follow TheLines on Twitter for complete 2022 Kentucky Derby coverage. margin: 3px; He improved to 5-for-5 this season with a dominant 2 -length victory from just off the pace in the Grade 2 Stephen Foster that resulted in a career-best 123 Equibase Speed Figure and 111 Beyer Speed Figure. [5] Easy Goer is also the record-holder for a two-year-old, earning a 116 Beyer Speed Figure in the 1988 Champagne Stakes. Below is a closer look at the career best Beyer Speed Figures, Brisnet Speed Ratings and TimeformUS Speed Figures for the North American contenders in the prospective 2022 Kentucky Derby field. Last year, he was on fire. Belmont Stakes 2022 field and odds. Stars of Yesterday: Looking Back at Best San Felipe Stakes Winners, Stars of Yesterday: Looking Back at Best Fountain of Youth Stakes Winners, Triple Crown Turning Point: The Right Rider for Gallant Fox, SLIDESHOW: U.S. Messier earned a 103 Beyer in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (G3). The first Saturday in May approaches, which means the Kentucky Derby is coming. If speed figures are correct, it could be more of the same in 2022. It will be well thought out and he'll have him ready to run no matter where he winds up.. The best horses in the U.S. generally earn Beyer Speed Figures between 105 and 115. In the only . (Note that this speed figure was assigned before the numbers were published in the Daily Racing Form, so may not be included in some listings of the top speed figures. Welcome to 2022 Kentucky Derby Prospect Snapshots, where we'll take a look each week at a recent winner on the Triple Crown trail, usually from the Road to the Kentucky Derby schedule from which the . [citation needed]. Pedigree: Olympiad is from the 13th crop of 2004 champion sprinter Speightstown, by Gone West. The average winning Beyer Speed Figure in the Kentucky Derby is 109. For the purpose of this particular preview we'll just . The first Saturday in May approaches, which means the Kentucky Derby is coming. It doesn't lack for storylines either with Kentucky Derby sensation Rich . In Picking Winners, Beyer claimed a breakthrough when a study of claiming races at Calder Race Course showed Beyer that 1:13 for six furlongs was equally fast to 1:26.1 at seven; from there, Kovitz's math was used to generate perfectly accurate parallel-time and beaten-lengths charts, which Beyer then used to make par times for classes, against which each race is measured to determine if the track is faster or slower than normal. padding: 4px; Mo Donegal ran a non-threateningfifth in the Kentucky Derby after his Wood victory. [13] In 2007 the highest Beyer Speed Figure was 124 assigned to Midnight Lute in the 7 furlong Forego Handicap at Saratoga Race Course. You can throw out superlative after superlative. A colt being trounced in Belmont MSW company may find a soft spot upstate at Finger Lakes, where the par for the class is 59.In most cases, pars are not listed for races restricted to 2- or 3-year-olds. No one else has topped 96. Prior to the Malibu, Flightline and Baby Yoda (Prospective) were tied for the best number on the year, a 114. Beyer's subsequent books, "My $50,000 Year at the Races" (1978), "The Winning Horseplayer" (1983), and "Beyer on Speed" (1993) continued to raise racing fans' awareness of the importance of speed figures. Chance of rain 100%. Beyer Speed Figures favor Epicenter, and it is not very close. In 2017 Beyer was given the racing industrys highest honor, the Eclipse Award of Merit, for his lifetime achievements. The first published work on creating speed-figures was E.W. Below is the best and most recent BSF from each horse in the 2022 Kentucky Derby Field. } The handicapping, sports odds information contained on this website is for entertainment purposes only. From this work, using the same principle, Kovitz derived the beaten-lengths chart which Beyer published in Picking Winners. Triple Crown Winners, From Barbershop to Backstretch: Real Players Sharing Unique Horse Racing Stories, General Jim Can Post the Upset in Fountain of Youth Stakes, 2023 Fountain of Youth Stakes Cheat Sheet: Get to Know the Horses. Miles Ahead and Drain the Clock, first and second in the Gulfstream Park Sprint, were tied for third in the Beyer figures, according to the Daily Racing Form. We'll analyze the Beyer Speed Figures on the prep . .tableizer-table td { Obviously the racing surface at Tampa Bay Downs that day was playing slightly faster. (Coady Photography), A Closer Look at 2022 Breeders Cup Classic Hopeful Olympiad, Grandview Equine, Cheyenne Stables, and LNJ Foxwoods. Seven of the 12 earned a BSF in the Kentucky Derby of 103 or higher. For winning the Arkansas Derby (G1), Cyberknife earned a Brisnet Figure three points lower than Happy Jack did while being dusted in the Santa Anita Derby. Kentucky Derby 2022: Why your horse can - and can't - win Saturday's race . The top-end speed runs deeper in this field, as well. This implies that Secretariat would have had the highest ever Beyer speed figure. Belmont Stakes 2022: Post positions, morning line; We the People favored at 2-1. . .tableizer-table th { A bay son of Not This Time, Epicenter has seen his Beyer Speed Figures go up in every race of his career, peaking with a 102 in the Louisiana Derby. Pars for Beyer Speed Figures represent the approximate average winning figure for a given class at a given track. Below is the best and most recent BSF from each horse in the 2022 Kentucky Derby Field. . (16-1) earned a 93 Beyer . Some horseplayers that read Picking Sportsbooks began making their own numbers and then in 1992 The Daily Racing Form started publishing the numbers in the past performances, giving access to everyone. He's a gift. }. University of Louisville Equine Industry Program - Get a Career in Horse Racing! Taiba earned the same number when defeating his stablemate in the Santa Anita Derby (G1). Finley said that all decisions regarding a racing schedule will be made by Sadler. In 1992, Beyer began making turf figures, which were made more accurate by his adjustment of the beaten-lengths chart, in which he uses the six-and-a-half furlong beaten-lengths chart for all races at that distance or longer, to reflect the nature of turf racing, where horses jockey for position most of the way, and then sprint home with almost all of their energy in reserve, making the competitive part of the race more akin to a sprint than to the race's actual distance. After reaching the WIAA Division 1 girls basketball state . He has produced multiple five-figure days at the track over the years, including a $60,000 Pick 6 at Del Mar in 2014. Breeders Cup Promo - Get Up to $200 Back If Your First Bet Loses, Get Your First Single-Horse Win Wager Back. Slew's Tiz Whiz Named Washington's 2022 Horse Of The Year. font-weight: bold; By comparison, American Pharoah earned Beyers of 105 for his wins in the Arkansas Derby and the Kentucky Derby. "Five Takeaways" From the Week Concluding March 13, 2022 By Jeff Siegel, 1stbet.com Analyst and Handicapper. Only one horse has recorded a better Beyer speed figure than Flightline's 126 in the Pacific Classic, and none have matched his five-race string of excellence 105, 114, 118, 112, and 126. 7 Winners on Monday! No specifics, he said. Hes a graduate of BGSU and works as an auditor for Google content curation products. We knew Olympiad was fast - he set a new track record of 1:42.01 for 1 1/16 miles at Fair Grounds in winning the Mineshaft Stakes in February - but watching him press a fast pace in the Stephen Foster and still finish with a final eighth of a . Flightline, now a 4-year-old, posted an impressive Beyer speed figure of 126 in the Pacific Classic, and continued a five-race string of excellence of 105, 114, 118, 112, and 126 leading into . Record-Holder for a drug overage and runner-up Mandaloun was promoted to the Figures... 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